What Percentage Of Races Does The Favorite Horse Win? Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

What percentage of races does the favorite horse win?

As a general rule, the favorite will win about 1/3 of the time, but what is amazing is how often the favorite will place, especially when less than half of the field is 5-1 or lower.  In this case a favorite will place almost 100% of the time.

In order to win a horse race, you might want to predict the winner by using  statistical calulations instead.  In a race with 20 runners you have a 1 in 20 chance of picking the winner.  However, let us say that the race has just six runners, then you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning.  Thus, you can see that  the fewer the runners there are, the better your chances of winning. Therefore, it is statistically speaking, a bad race to bet on.  The key point:  is stay away from horse races where there are lots of runners!

In a race with only six horses running, you have a 1 in 6 chance of picking a winner.  However, bookmakers/tracks usually only offer poor odds if you bet place or show on such a horse.  Of course, if you placed a win bet and the horse does win, then you will come away with lots of money.  You really need odds of at least 4/1 to win anything if the horse that you bet on places  second or third.  Of course, this is providing that you placed a place or show bet.  If the odds are less than 4/1,  then I suggest passing such a horse race.

In my opinion, the secret of winning on the horses is to look at the statistics.  I suggest that you choose horse races with nine runners and 1/4 odds on the first three, or six runners with 1/4 odds on the first two.    Thus, I suggest that you limit yourself to horse races with either 6 or 9  horses running to have the best chance of winning.

Thus, the question asked is if you should bet on the horse most likely to win? Sometimes the answer to this is "no".  Often the odds on the horse most likely to win is poor.  Remember, when you use this system, you are making your predictions on the odds.  Thus, place your bet around 20 minutes to race time.

If the horses just below the favorite have better odds, such as 4/1, 5/1 or better; then place your bet on those horses.  Remember, that your horse only has to come in the first three in a six or nine horse race for you to come away with a profit.  And do not forget, the horse still has a chance of winning too.  For this reason, I do not always place my money on the horse that is predicted to win.  Look at the odds being offered and if they are better on the second or third horse, then go for it.

As one can see, it often is better to bet on a horse you think is going to place.  The reason being that the odds are often better than the favorite winning the race.

Why does the horse predicted to place actually wins so many races?  Maybe because the favorite usually only wins 1 in 3 races.  In 2 out of 3 races some other horse wins.

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