Horse Betting On False Favorites Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

Horse betting on false favorites.

The horse with the most money wagered on it to win is considered the favorite in a horse race.  The favorite horse will therefore have lowest odds. as a rule, favorites win horse races about 28% of the time.  Thus, betting the favorite in each race is usually good for you if you are the type of horse bettor that enjoys seeing your horse win the bet for you.  However, it is generally considered by most that just betting on favorites is not a money maker for most horse bettors.

In most cases, the favorite is usually a bad bet.  Any horse that wins 28% of the time would have to pay an average of $6 for every $2 wagered on it to win. Favorites usually average less than $6 to win.  Thus, you if you bet only on favorites, you will slowly lose your bankroll.

Many horse bettors who attend the races soon catch onto the favorite angle, and often come up with the idea that if they can just figure out which favorites are good bets and which ones will not win, they will be able to make money.  Fat chance!  Although the theory is sound, it is much more difficult to put into action.

In most cases, trying to eliminate favorites that are not going to win can be difficult most of the time.  A major exception is if a runner is made the favorite in a race despite the fact that the horse has never done what is being asked of it.  An example would be if a young horse is being asked to run in a route race, when the best it has done to date is to win a sprint race.

In this case, the young horse is still unproven at that distance.  It does not matter what the breeding indicates or how heavily the horse is backed in the win pool, it is still an unknown as to whether the young horse can handle the distance.  In this case, you may have a false favorite since the favorite is being asked to win at a distance the horse has never won at, or perhaps the  surface of the track is different and the horse has never tried it.  The above general rule would not apply to maiden races.

If you are a horse bettor who bets on favorites and are looking for a type of favorite to eliminate, then this tip is one to consider.  However, in most cases you will, in my opinion, not make enough money to make a large enough profit.

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